Social Sciences in China, 2025

Vol. 46, No. 4, 2025

The Evolving Game: Charting the Stages and Trends of International Outer Space Rules

(Abstract)

Wang Guoyu and Zhang Chengyun

Outer space is a commanding height for major countries strategic competition, and the formulation of international rules is equally a strategic high ground. The significance of the game over international outer space rules is self-evident. Whether in the realm of peaceful uses of outer space or in outer space arms control, the rules game has entered an unprecedentedly white-hot phase. Accurately identifying the historical development principles and characteristics of this game is crucial for states to plan ahead and seize the initiative in future. For the international community, it is the key to jointly promoting the positive development of outer space global governance and the rule of law in outer space. The evolution of the international outer space rules game can be broadly divided into three stages: preliminary establishment and the formulation of basic rules (Stage 1.0, 1959- 2007); the rise of comprehensive rules focusing on the peaceful uses of outer space (Stage 2.0, 2008-2020), and the formulation of comprehensive rules with an emphasis on outer space arms control (Stage 3.0, 2021-). Since entering Stage 2.0, the overall trend has been manifested in “eight characteristics”: fragmentation, integration, conceptualization, the hardening of soft law, mirroring/politicization, common interest orientation, complexiffcation and deepening, and universalization. In the long run, outer space global governance and the rule of law in outer space will inevitably move toward the convergence, systematization, and integration of international outer space rules, completing the transformation from an “obligation-based” to a “rights-based” paradigm.

Keywords: international outer space rules game, outer space arms control, outer space global governance, rule of law in outer space, outer space law